The Akaike Info Criterion (AIC) gauges the relative high quality of statistical fashions for a given dataset. It estimates the data misplaced when a specific mannequin is used to symbolize the method that generated the info. A decrease AIC worth suggests a greater mannequin match, balancing goodness of match with mannequin complexity. For instance, given two fashions utilized to the identical dataset, the mannequin with the decrease AIC is most popular. Calculating the AIC includes figuring out the mannequin’s most probability estimate and the variety of estimated parameters. The system is AIC = 2k – 2ln(L), the place ok is the variety of parameters and L is the maximized probability operate.
This metric is efficacious in mannequin choice, offering a rigorous, goal means to match completely different fashions. By penalizing fashions with extra parameters, it helps keep away from overfitting, thus selling fashions that generalize effectively to new information. Launched by Hirotugu Akaike in 1973, it has turn into a cornerstone of statistical modeling and is extensively used throughout disciplines, together with ecology, economics, and engineering, for duties starting from variable choice to time sequence evaluation. Its utility permits researchers to establish fashions that designate the info successfully with out pointless complexity.